Kidderminster vs Gateshead
National League, England · 2026-09-16 · 20:45 CET
DLLDD
LLLLLThe score model made a Kidderminster win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kidderminster 1.69 – 1.01 Gateshead.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kidderminster win | 53.2% | 63.5% | -10.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 21.4% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Gateshead win | 22.4% | 15.2% | +7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 56.5% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 35.4% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | 51.4% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.7% | 39.0% | +0.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kidderminster 13.5 / Gateshead 58.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kidderminster vs Gateshead in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.