Altrincham vs Hartlepool
National League, England · 2026-09-16 · 20:45 CET
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LLLLWThe score model made an Altrincham win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Altrincham 1.43 – 1.10 Hartlepool.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altrincham win | 44.3% | 40.4% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 27.1% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Hartlepool win | 29.0% | 32.5% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 52.1% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% | 31.1% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 56.8% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.9% | 35.7% | -2.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Altrincham 58.3 / Hartlepool 55.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Altrincham vs Hartlepool in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.