Sutton vs Eastleigh
National League, England · 2026-09-15 · 20:45 CET
DDLDL
WLDLLThe score model made a Sutton win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sutton 1.47 – 1.27 Eastleigh.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton win | 41.6% | 44.6% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 27.5% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Eastleigh win | 32.6% | 27.8% | +4.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 50.5% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.5% | 29.7% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 54.8% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.1% | 34.4% | -4.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sutton 48.6 / Eastleigh 58.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sutton vs Eastleigh in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.