Southend vs Tamworth
National League, England · 2026-09-15 · 20:45 CET
WLDWW
WLWWLThe score model made a Southend win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Southend 2.08 – 1.03 Tamworth.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southend win | 61.5% | 59.9% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.8% | 21.5% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Tamworth win | 17.8% | 18.7% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 64.7% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% | 44.3% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | 60.8% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.9% | 44.9% | -4.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Southend 60.2 / Tamworth 48.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Southend vs Tamworth in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.