Boston Utd vs Woking
National League, England · 2026-09-15 · 20:45 CET
WLDLL
DWLWLThe score model made a Boston Utd win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Boston Utd 1.25 – 1.24 Woking.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Utd win | 36.6% | 41.4% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 27.0% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Woking win | 36.0% | 31.6% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.5% | 51.1% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.1% | 30.0% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 55.5% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 34.7% | -6.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Boston Utd 48.6 / Woking 58.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Boston Utd vs Woking in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.