Sutton vs Scunthorpe
National League, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
DDLDL
LLWLLThe score model made a Scunthorpe win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sutton 1.42 – 1.53 Scunthorpe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton win | 35.3% | 42.8% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 26.1% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Scunthorpe win | 39.9% | 31.1% | +8.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | 58.4% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.1% | 37.7% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | 61.4% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.3% | 39.7% | -1.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sutton 47.9 / Scunthorpe 38.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sutton vs Scunthorpe in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.