Solihull Moors vs Aldershot
National League, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
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LWLLLThe score model made a Solihull Moors win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Solihull Moors 1.84 – 1.49 Aldershot.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solihull Moors win | 45.9% | 42.8% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.8% | 24.9% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Aldershot win | 31.3% | 32.3% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.6% | 59.8% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.6% | 38.8% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.2% | 62.1% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.1% | 40.8% | +4.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Solihull Moors 57.8 / Aldershot 57.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Solihull Moors vs Aldershot in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.