Forest Green vs Gateshead
National League, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
DLDDL
LLLLLThe score model made a Forest Green win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 4:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Forest Green 2.01 – 1.00 Gateshead.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green win | 60.5% | 62.9% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.4% | 20.6% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Gateshead win | 18.1% | 16.4% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | 62.6% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.5% | 42.1% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 57.5% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.4% | 42.9% | -2.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Forest Green 47.7 / Gateshead 58 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Forest Green vs Gateshead in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.