Eastleigh vs Boreham Wood
National League, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
WLDLL
WWWWWThe score model made a Boreham Wood win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eastleigh 1.30 – 1.94 Boreham Wood.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastleigh win | 25.6% | 18.1% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.3% | 21.9% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Boreham Wood win | 52.1% | 60.0% | -7.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | 61.3% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.7% | 41.0% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | 58.2% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 41.9% | -5.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Eastleigh 57.8 / Boreham Wood 43.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Eastleigh vs Boreham Wood in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.