Boston Utd vs Wealdstone
National League, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
WLDLL
LWDLLThe score model made a Boston Utd win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Boston Utd 1.68 – 1.24 Wealdstone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Utd win | 47.6% | 43.9% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 26.3% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Wealdstone win | 28.1% | 29.8% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | 56.5% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.4% | 35.7% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 59.5% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.9% | 38.1% | -0.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Boston Utd 47.9 / Wealdstone 57.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Boston Utd vs Wealdstone in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.