Kidderminster vs Hartlepool
National League, England · 2026-09-11 · 20:45 CET
DLLDD
LLLLWThe score model made a Kidderminster win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kidderminster 1.33 – 0.96 Hartlepool.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kidderminster win | 45.0% | 41.2% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.2% | 27.5% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Hartlepool win | 26.8% | 31.3% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.9% | 52.1% | -12.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.7% | 31.3% | -11.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.4% | 56.4% | -11.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 33.7% | -5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kidderminster 12.7 / Hartlepool 54.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.