Hartlepool vs Woking
National League, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
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DWLWLThe score model made a Hartlepool win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hartlepool 1.16 – 1.15 Woking.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartlepool win | 36.0% | 41.6% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.9% | 27.8% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Woking win | 35.2% | 30.5% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.6% | 47.7% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.2% | 27.6% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.1% | 53.1% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.7% | 33.5% | -10.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hartlepool 54.4 / Woking 57.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.