Gateshead vs Solihull Moors
National League, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
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LLWLLThe score model made a Gateshead win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gateshead 1.68 – 1.49 Solihull Moors.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gateshead win | 42.2% | 34.9% | +7.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 26.8% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Solihull Moors win | 33.9% | 38.3% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.3% | 58.2% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.0% | 38.0% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | 61.6% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.1% | 40.0% | +3.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gateshead 57.8 / Solihull Moors 57.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.