Boreham Wood vs Carlisle
National League, England · 2026-09-05 · 18:30 CET
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LLWWDThe score model made a Boreham Wood win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Boreham Wood 1.78 – 1.58 Carlisle.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boreham Wood win | 42.4% | 55.5% | -13.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 22.7% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Carlisle win | 34.5% | 21.8% | +12.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.2% | 64.2% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.3% | 43.9% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 66.2% | 62.0% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.9% | 43.7% | +1.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Boreham Wood 43.4 / Carlisle 33.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.