Aldershot vs FC Halifax
National League, England · 2026-09-05 · 13:30 CET
LWLLL
DLDWWThe score model made an FC Halifax win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aldershot 1.44 – 1.51 FC Halifax.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldershot win | 36.0% | 41.9% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 27.6% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| FC Halifax win | 39.1% | 30.5% | +8.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | 54.8% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.3% | 34.6% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | 58.8% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 37.7% | -1.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aldershot 57.7 / FC Halifax 57.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.