Altrincham vs Eastleigh
National League, England · 2026-09-04 · 20:45 CET
WWWWL
LWLDLThe score model made an Altrincham win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Altrincham 1.65 – 1.14 Eastleigh.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altrincham win | 48.9% | 44.7% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 26.8% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Eastleigh win | 26.2% | 28.5% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 54.0% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 33.4% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | 57.1% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.4% | 36.9% | -1.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Altrincham 57.7 / Eastleigh 57.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.