Tonbridge vs Hemel Hempstead
National League South, England · 2026-10-17 · 16:00 CET
WLDLW
DDDWDThe score model makes a Tonbridge win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tonbridge 1.37 – 1.00 Hemel Hempstead.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tonbridge win | 45.8% | — | — |
| Draw | 26.5% | — | — |
| Hemel Hempstead win | 27.8% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.2% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.5% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 46.7% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.9% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tonbridge 60 / Hemel Hempstead 59.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.