Torquay vs Dorking
National League South, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
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DDDWDThe score model made a Torquay win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Torquay 1.82 – 1.51 Dorking.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torquay win | 45.5% | 49.7% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.0% | 23.6% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Dorking win | 32.5% | 26.6% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.7% | 63.4% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.7% | 43.2% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 65.0% | 63.8% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.2% | 43.6% | +0.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Torquay 57.8 / Dorking 51.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Torquay vs Dorking in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.