Hemel Hempstead vs Tonbridge
National League South, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
DDWDL
LDLWWThe score model made a Hemel Hempstead win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hemel Hempstead 1.24 – 1.18 Tonbridge.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hemel Hempstead win | 38.0% | 40.9% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 26.3% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Tonbridge win | 35.3% | 32.8% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.4% | 53.6% | -10.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.4% | 33.3% | -10.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 57.2% | -8.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.4% | 36.5% | -7.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hemel Hempstead 59.2 / Tonbridge 60 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hemel Hempstead vs Tonbridge in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.