Hampton & Richmond vs Chelmsford
National League South, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
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DDDDWThe score model made a Chelmsford win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hampton & Richmond 1.23 – 1.74 Chelmsford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hampton & Richmond win | 27.5% | 25.7% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.9% | 25.1% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Chelmsford win | 49.6% | 49.2% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.1% | 55.5% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.7% | 35.1% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 57.4% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.4% | 38.3% | -0.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hampton & Richmond 60.2 / Chelmsford 59.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hampton & Richmond vs Chelmsford in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.