Braintree vs Maidstone
National League South, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
WLLLL
WLLWWThe score model made a Maidstone win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Braintree 1.02 – 1.54 Maidstone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braintree win | 25.5% | 23.4% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 23.5% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Maidstone win | 49.6% | 53.1% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.1% | 58.3% | -11.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.5% | 37.2% | -11.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | 58.1% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 39.5% | -6.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Braintree 16.5 / Maidstone 56.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Braintree vs Maidstone in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.