AFC Totton vs Slough
National League South, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
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WLDLLThe score model made an AFC Totton win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 70%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AFC Totton 2.02 – 1.60 Slough.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Totton win | 47.9% | 57.3% | -9.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.9% | 21.5% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Slough win | 31.2% | 21.2% | +10.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.2% | 65.5% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.0% | 46.0% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 69.0% | 63.2% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 86.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 56.1% | 45.6% | +10.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AFC Totton 36.1 / Slough 59.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open AFC Totton vs Slough in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.