Weston-super-Mare vs AFC Totton
National League South, England · 2026-09-08 · 20:45 CET
LWWLD
LLLLLThe score model made a Weston-super-Mare win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Weston-super-Mare 1.71 – 0.90 AFC Totton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weston-super-Mare win | 56.7% | 53.5% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 25.4% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| AFC Totton win | 20.1% | 21.0% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 51.5% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% | 31.1% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 52.4% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.9% | 35.4% | -3.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Weston-super-Mare 37.3 / AFC Totton 35.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.