Tonbridge vs Maidstone
National League South, England · 2026-09-08 · 20:45 CET
WLDLW
WWLLWThe score model made a Maidstone win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tonbridge 1.17 – 1.35 Maidstone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tonbridge win | 32.7% | 32.0% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.9% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Maidstone win | 41.4% | 41.1% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 53.2% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 33.0% | -8.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | 57.1% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.6% | 37.2% | -4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tonbridge 59.4 / Maidstone 56.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.