Salisbury vs Slough
National League South, England · 2026-09-08 · 20:45 CET
WDWWW
LWLDLThe score model made a Salisbury win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 5:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Salisbury 1.76 – 1.27 Slough.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salisbury win | 49.2% | 69.4% | -20.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 17.3% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Slough win | 28.1% | 13.4% | +14.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.5% | 68.5% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.1% | 49.2% | -13.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.3% | 58.8% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 47.7% | -8.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Salisbury 48.7 / Slough 58.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.