Maidenhead vs Torquay
National League South, England · 2026-09-08 · 20:45 CET
WLDWL
WWDLWThe score model made a Maidenhead win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Maidenhead 1.35 – 0.96 Torquay.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maidenhead win | 46.3% | 33.7% | +12.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.3% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Torquay win | 26.9% | 39.0% | -12.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.6% | 53.6% | -13.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.2% | 33.7% | -13.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.3% | 58.2% | -13.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.9% | 37.5% | -5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Maidenhead 37.1 / Torquay 57.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.