Dorking vs Chelmsford
National League South, England · 2026-09-08 · 20:45 CET
DDDWD
DDDDWThe score model made a Dorking win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 3:3 (HT 2:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dorking 1.77 – 1.29 Chelmsford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorking win | 49.0% | 46.1% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.6% | 25.1% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Chelmsford win | 28.3% | 28.8% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | 61.2% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.7% | 41.1% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 63.3% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.3% | 42.1% | -5.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dorking 51.3 / Chelmsford 58.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.