Truro vs Chesham
National League South, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
DLWDW
LLWLLThe score model made a Truro win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Truro 1.58 – 0.90 Chesham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truro win | 53.5% | 50.0% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 25.7% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Chesham win | 22.0% | 24.3% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% | 52.5% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.8% | 31.5% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.7% | 54.7% | -8.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.4% | 36.0% | -11.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Truro 25.1 / Chesham 48.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.