Chelmsford vs Salisbury
National League South, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
DDDDW
WDWWWThe score model made a Chelmsford win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chelmsford 1.71 – 0.97 Salisbury.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelmsford win | 55.2% | 53.2% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 24.7% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Salisbury win | 21.7% | 22.1% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 57.1% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.1% | 36.6% | -8.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 56.9% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.9% | 38.5% | -8.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chelmsford 57.1 / Salisbury 47 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.