AFC Totton vs Hampton & Richmond
National League South, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
WLLLL
LWDLLThe score model made an AFC Totton win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 4:1 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AFC Totton 1.63 – 1.35 Hampton & Richmond.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Totton win | 44.3% | 44.9% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 25.5% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Hampton & Richmond win | 32.3% | 29.6% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | 55.7% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.8% | 35.2% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | 58.7% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.4% | 38.0% | +3.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AFC Totton 33.6 / Hampton & Richmond 58 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.