Radcliffe vs Oxford City
National League North, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
WLLWW
WLWDWThe score model made an Oxford City win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Radcliffe 1.48 – 1.51 Oxford City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radcliffe win | 37.5% | 30.4% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.6% | 25.8% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Oxford City win | 38.9% | 43.8% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | 57.7% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.1% | 37.2% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | 60.4% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 39.3% | -4.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Radcliffe 50.9 / Oxford City 50 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Radcliffe vs Oxford City in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.