Marine vs Darlington
National League North, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
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LLDDLThe score model made a Marine win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Marine 1.46 – 1.32 Darlington.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine win | 40.9% | 41.9% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.6% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Darlington win | 34.5% | 31.5% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 58.0% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.2% | 37.4% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 61.6% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 39.2% | -6.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Marine 50.3 / Darlington 60.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Marine vs Darlington in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.