King’s Lynn vs Chorley
National League North, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
LWWWD
LWLWWThe score model made a Chorley win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: King’s Lynn 1.29 – 1.31 Chorley.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| King’s Lynn win | 36.6% | 45.7% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 26.3% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Chorley win | 37.9% | 27.9% | +9.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 55.3% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% | 34.4% | -7.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | 58.6% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.5% | 37.8% | -3.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: King’s Lynn 60 / Chorley 60.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open King’s Lynn vs Chorley in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.