Buxton vs Chester
National League North, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
WWLLD
DLLWWThe score model made a Buxton win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Buxton 1.45 – 1.17 Chester.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buxton win | 43.8% | 36.4% | +7.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 27.5% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Chester win | 31.0% | 36.1% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 50.8% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 29.3% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 55.3% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.9% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Buxton 62.4 / Chester 61.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Buxton vs Chester in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.