Worksop vs Bedford
National League North, England · 2026-09-08 · 20:45 CET
WLWLW
WWLDLThe score model made a Worksop win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Worksop 1.67 – 1.35 Bedford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worksop win | 45.2% | 44.2% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 27.0% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Bedford win | 31.5% | 28.8% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | 52.2% | +6.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.8% | 31.7% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 56.0% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.7% | 36.0% | +9.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Worksop 35 / Bedford 35 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.