South Shields vs Marine
National League North, England · 2026-09-08 · 20:45 CET
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LLWWWThe score model made a South Shields win the most likely outcome at 61%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: South Shields 1.85 – 0.87 Marine.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Shields win | 60.7% | 62.4% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.7% | 21.0% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Marine win | 17.6% | 16.6% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | 62.4% | -11.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.0% | 42.0% | -13.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 56.8% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 42.6% | -10.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: South Shields 58.1 / Marine 49.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.