Macclesfield vs Scarborough
National League North, England · 2026-09-08 · 20:45 CET
LDDWW
LDDDLThe score model made a Macclesfield win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Macclesfield 1.74 – 1.18 Scarborough.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macclesfield win | 50.8% | 52.5% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 24.8% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Scarborough win | 26.2% | 22.7% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | 53.8% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.4% | 33.5% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 54.6% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.8% | 37.1% | -10.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Macclesfield 37.3 / Scarborough 60.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.