Chorley vs Darlington
National League North, England · 2026-09-08 · 20:45 CET
LWLWW
LLLDDThe score model made a Chorley win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 5:2 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chorley 1.69 – 1.21 Darlington.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chorley win | 48.8% | 42.2% | +6.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 26.2% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Darlington win | 27.9% | 31.5% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | 57.7% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.1% | 36.9% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 60.8% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.1% | 39.7% | +0.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chorley 59.6 / Darlington 59.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.