Buxton vs Brackley Town
National League North, England · 2026-09-08 · 20:45 CET
LWWLL
LLDWWThe score model made a Buxton win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 5:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Buxton 1.31 – 1.20 Brackley Town.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buxton win | 39.6% | 55.7% | -16.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 23.4% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Brackley Town win | 34.3% | 21.0% | +13.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 55.6% | -9.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.5% | 35.0% | -10.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 55.3% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 38.0% | -4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Buxton 61.9 / Brackley Town 31.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.