Bedford vs Spennymoor
National League North, England · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
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DLLDDThe score model made a Bedford win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bedford 1.54 – 1.50 Spennymoor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bedford win | 38.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Spennymoor win | 37.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.3% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bedford 32.7 / Spennymoor 58.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.