Oldham vs Chesterfield
League Two, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
LLLDW
WLWDLThe score model made an Oldham win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oldham 1.35 – 1.03 Chesterfield.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham win | 44.1% | 44.2% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.6% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Chesterfield win | 28.7% | 28.2% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.4% | 50.8% | -8.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.6% | 30.7% | -9.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 55.5% | -8.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 34.6% | -2.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oldham 33.3 / Chesterfield 49 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.