Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctTitle raceevery club & what-if →
Barnet 38%Salford 26%York City 21%
chance of winning the league · 88 pts won it in 90% of runs
Promotion raceevery club & what-if →
Barnet 74%Salford 67%York City 60%
chance of automatic promotion · 80 pts went up in 90% of runs
Relegation battleevery club & what-if →
Crawley 63%Rotherham 38%Rochdale 33%
chance of going down · 49 pts kept a club up in 90% of runs
Biggest divergence
Salford – Exeter+28.6%
Under 2.5 · data 78% vs market 50%
Fastest starters
Swindon38%
5 of their 13 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Colchester45%
5 of their 11 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+20.1%Draws paid out more than the market charged: +20.1% at market prices across 150 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-6.2 ptsOldham produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
31%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.4' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Salford – Exeter2026-10-31 15:00Under 2.5Model 78.4%Implied 49.8%▲ +28.6%- Swindon – Rotherham2026-10-31 15:00Home winModel 59.0%Implied 43.5%▲ +15.5%
- Accrington – Northampton2026-10-31 15:00Under 2.5Model 75.3%Implied 59.9%▲ +15.5%
- Oldham – Crawley2026-10-31 15:00FT U3.5Model 75.4%Implied 64.1%▲ +11.2%
- Tranmere – Cheltenham2026-10-31 15:00Away winModel 33.6%Implied 26.5%▲ +7.1%
- Shrewsbury – Gillingham2026-10-31 15:00Away winModel 34.0%Implied 27.0%▲ +6.9%
- Colchester – Walsall2026-10-31 15:00Under 2.5Model 58.5%Implied 51.8%▲ +6.7%
- Fleetwood – Bristol Rovers2026-10-31 15:00Home winModel 44.5%Implied 38.0%▲ +6.5%
- Grimsby – York City2026-10-31 12:30Away winModel 37.9%Implied 35.8%▲ +2.1%
- Port Vale – Rochdale2026-10-31 12:30Under 2.5Model 56.8%Implied 54.9%▲ +1.9%
- Crewe – Barnet2026-10-31 15:00Home winModel 34.6%Implied 32.9%▲ +1.7%
- Newport – Chesterfield2026-10-30 19:45Over 2.5Model 54.0%Implied 55.2%-1.3%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford– Exeter | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 78.4% | 49.8% | ▲ +28.6% | 2.01 |
| 2 |  Swindon– Rotherham | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Home win | 59.0% | 43.5% | ▲ +15.5% | 2.30 |
| 3 |  Accrington– Northampton | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 75.3% | 59.9% | ▲ +15.5% | 1.67 |
| 4 |  Oldham– Crawley | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | FT U3.5 | 75.4% | 64.1% | ▲ +11.2% | 1.56 |
| 5 |  Tranmere– Cheltenham | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Away win | 33.6% | 26.5% | ▲ +7.1% | 3.77 |
| 6 |  Shrewsbury– Gillingham | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Away win | 34.0% | 27.0% | ▲ +6.9% | 3.70 |
| 7 |  Colchester– Walsall | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 58.5% | 51.8% | ▲ +6.7% | 1.93 |
| 8 |  Fleetwood– Bristol Rovers | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Home win | 44.5% | 38.0% | ▲ +6.5% | 2.63 |
| 9 |  Grimsby– York City | 2026-10-31 | 12:30 | Away win | 37.9% | 35.8% | ▲ +2.1% | 2.79 |
| 10 |  Port Vale– Rochdale | 2026-10-31 | 12:30 | Under 2.5 | 56.8% | 54.9% | ▲ +1.9% | 1.82 |
| 11 |  Crewe– Barnet | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Home win | 34.6% | 32.9% | ▲ +1.7% | 3.04 |
| 12 |  Newport– Chesterfield | 2026-10-30 | 19:45 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 55.2% | -1.3% | 1.81 |
League Two predictions and stats by market: 1X2 · Over 2.5 · Under 2.5 · BTTS · HT Over 1.5 · HT Under 1.5
Add League Two fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining League Two schedule 10,000 times a day. Barnet win the 2026-2027 title in 38% of them, projecting ~82 points; Salford are next at 26%. At the other end, Crawley finish in the bottom three in 75% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Salford's title chance up 8 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 22 | 82 | 72–92 | ▼38% | 83% | — |
| 2 | Salford | 28 | 80 | 71–90 | ▲26% | 79% | — |
| 3 | York City | 20 | 78 | 69–88 | ▼21% | 71% | — |
| 4 | Chesterfield | 19 | 73 | 64–83 | 7% | 45% | <1% |
| 5 | Walsall | 19 | 70 | 61–79 | ▼3% | 28% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 22 | Rochdale | 15 | 49 | 40–58 | — | <1% | 48% |
| 23 | Rotherham | 12 | 48 | 39–57 | — | <1% | 53% |
| 24 | Crawley | 6 | 44 | 34–53 | — | <1% | 75% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 402 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every League Two match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Draws▲ +20.1%
at market prices · 150 matcheschart →
Draws in League Two, 2026-2027: across 150 matches the market's prices paid out +20.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▲ +5.3%
at market prices · 150 matcheschart →
Home wins in League Two, 2026-2027: across 150 matches the market's prices paid out +5.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▲ +4.7%
at market prices · 150 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in League Two, 2026-2027: across 150 matches the market's prices paid out +4.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −2.1%
at market prices · 150 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in League Two, 2026-2027: across 150 matches the market's prices paid out −2.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −17.5%
at market prices · 150 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in League Two, 2026-2027: across 150 matches the market's prices paid out −17.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −20.1%
at market prices · 150 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in League Two, 2026-2027: across 150 matches the market's prices paid out −20.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −44.0%
at market prices · 150 matcheschart →
Away wins in League Two, 2026-2027: across 150 matches the market's prices paid out −44.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford | 28 | 22.8 | +5.2 | |
| 2 | Barnet | 22 | 18.5 | +3.5 | |
| 3 | Cheltenham | 21 | 14.6 | +6.4 | |
| 4 | Crewe | 21 | 17.7 | +3.3 | |
| 5 | York City | 20 | 20.5 | -0.5 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 22 | Rotherham | 12 | 16.8 | -4.8 | |
| 23 | Port Vale | 12 | 15.2 | -3.2 | |
| 24 | Crawley | 6 | 11.1 | -5.1 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisSalford28 ptsBarnet22 ptsCheltenham21 ptsCrewe21 ptsYork City20 ptsWalsall19 ptsChesterfield19 ptsExeter19 ptsAccrington18 ptsShrewsbury18 ptsGrimsby17 ptsGillingham17 ptsTranmere16 ptsSwindon16 ptsBristol Rovers16 ptsNewport15 ptsRochdale15 ptsFleetwood14 ptsNorthampton13 ptsOldham12 ptsColchester12 ptsRotherham12 ptsPort Vale12 ptsCrawley6 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+