Biggest divergence
Colchester – Crewe+10.9%
Under 2.5 · data 61% vs market 51%
Fastest starters
Cheltenham20%
2 of their 10 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Barnet42%
5 of their 12 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
The outlier
+14.8uBlindly backing draws in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-5.0 ptsPort Vale produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
32%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 29.3' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Colchester – Crewe2026-09-12 14:00Under 2.5 ✓61.4%vs 50.5%▲ +10.9%- Crawley – Cheltenham2026-09-12 11:30Under 1.5 HT ✓74.0%vs 66.2%▲ +7.7%
- Oldham – Chesterfield2026-09-12 14:00Under 2.5 ✓57.6%vs 53.5%▲ +4.1%
- Grimsby – Bristol Rovers2026-09-12 11:30Home win ✓45.8%vs 42.2%▲ +3.6%
- Gillingham – Tranmere2026-09-12 14:00Home win ✓42.2%vs 39.4%▲ +2.8%
- Newport – Fleetwood2026-09-12 14:00Under 1.5 HT71.8%vs 70.4%▲ +1.4%
- Barnet – Accrington2026-09-12 14:00Over 1.5 HT45.2%vs 44.4%▲ +0.8%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Colchester– Crewe | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 61.4% | 50.5% | ▲ +10.9% | 1.98 | |
| 2 |  Crawley– Cheltenham | 2026-09-12 | 11:30 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 74.0% | 66.2% | ▲ +7.7% | 1.51 | |
| 3 |  Oldham– Chesterfield | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 57.6% | 53.5% | ▲ +4.1% | 1.87 | |
| 4 |  Grimsby– Bristol Rovers | 2026-09-12 | 11:30 | Home win ✓ | 45.8% | 42.2% | ▲ +3.6% | 2.37 | |
| 5 |  Gillingham– Tranmere | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Home win ✓ | 42.2% | 39.4% | ▲ +2.8% | 2.54 | |
| 6 |  Newport– Fleetwood | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 71.8% | 70.4% | ▲ +1.4% | 1.42 | |
| 7 |  Barnet– Accrington | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 45.2% | 44.4% | ▲ +0.8% | 2.25 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining League Two schedule 10,000 times a day. Barnet win the 2026-2027 title in 30% of them, projecting ~79 points; Oldham are next at 15%. At the other end, Rochdale finish in the bottom three in 84% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 9 | 79 | 68–89 | 30% | 68% | <1% |
| 2 | Oldham | 7 | 75 | 65–86 | 15% | 51% | <1% |
| 3 |  Swindon | 10 | 73 | 63–84 | 10% | 39% | <1% |
| 4 | Bristol Rovers | 12 | 72 | 61–82 | 8% | 34% | <1% |
| 5 | York City | 8 | 71 | 60–82 | 7% | 31% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 22 | Newport | 4 | 49 | 39–59 | <1% | <1% | 41% |
| 23 |  Shrewsbury | 3 | 42 | 33–52 | — | — | 77% |
| 24 | Rochdale | 3 | 40 | 30–50 | — | — | 84% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 492 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/england/league-two/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="League Two live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/england/league-two">League Two stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every League Two match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Draws▲ +14.8u
60 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every League Two match in 2026-2027: +14.8 units over 60 flat-stake bets.Home wins▲ +7.2u
60 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every League Two match in 2026-2027: +7.2 units over 60 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▼ -2.6u
60 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every League Two match in 2026-2027: -2.6 units over 60 flat-stake bets.Over 2.5 goals▼ -4.4u
60 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every League Two match in 2026-2027: -4.4 units over 60 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -4.7u
60 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every League Two match in 2026-2027: -4.7 units over 60 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▼ -9.1u
60 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every League Two match in 2026-2027: -9.1 units over 60 flat-stake bets.Away wins▼ -35.9u
60 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every League Two match in 2026-2027: -35.9 units over 60 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol Rovers | 12 | 8.7 | +3.3 | |
| 2 | Swindon | 10 | 6.3 | +3.8 | |
| 3 | Barnet | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 | |
| 4 | Tranmere | 9 | 6.8 | +2.3 | |
| 5 |  Walsall | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 22 | Rochdale | 3 | 7.4 | -4.4 | |
| 23 | Shrewsbury | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 | |
| 24 | Port Vale | 2 | 7.0 | -5.0 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisBristol Rovers12 ptsSwindon10 ptsBarnet9 ptsTranmere9 ptsWalsall9 ptsFleetwood9 ptsCrewe9 ptsCheltenham8 ptsYork City8 ptsOldham7 ptsGrimsby7 ptsColchester7 ptsGillingham6 ptsNorthampton6 pts
Salford6 ptsExeter5 ptsRotherham5 ptsChesterfield5 ptsAccrington5 ptsNewport4 ptsCrawley4 ptsRochdale3 ptsShrewsbury3 ptsPort Vale2 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+