Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctTitle raceevery club & what-if →
Barnet 53%York City 21%Salford 8%
chance of winning the league · 88 pts won it in 90% of runs
Promotion raceevery club & what-if →
Barnet 85%York City 62%Salford 37%
chance of automatic promotion · 80 pts went up in 90% of runs
Relegation battleevery club & what-if →
Crawley 48%Shrewsbury 39%Rotherham 21%
chance of going down · 49 pts kept a club up in 90% of runs
Biggest divergence
Salford – Crawley+12.3%
FT U3.5 · data 72% vs market 60%
Fastest starters
Rochdale27%
3 of their 11 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Walsall58%
7 of their 12 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+20.5%Draws paid out more than the market charged: +20.5% at market prices across 114 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-6.0 ptsOldham produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
31%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 33.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Salford – Crawley2026-10-17 14:00FT U3.5Model 72.2%Implied 59.9%▲ +12.3%- Port Vale – Chesterfield2026-10-17 14:00Under 2.5Model 59.7%Implied 48.8%▲ +10.9%
- Crewe – Rochdale2026-10-17 14:00Under 2.5Model 59.5%Implied 49.5%▲ +10.0%
- Accrington – Gillingham2026-10-17 14:00Under 2.5Model 58.7%Implied 52.6%▲ +6.0%
- Swindon – Walsall2026-10-17 14:00Under 1.5 HTModel 69.7%Implied 64.9%▲ +4.8%
- Oldham – Cheltenham2026-10-17 14:00Under 1.5 HTModel 70.2%Implied 66.7%▲ +3.6%
- Tranmere – Barnet2026-10-17 14:00Away winModel 52.5%Implied 50.3%▲ +2.3%
- Shrewsbury – Bristol Rovers2026-10-17 11:30Home winModel 32.4%Implied 33.0%-0.6%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford– Crawley | 2026-10-17 | 14:00 | FT U3.5 | 72.2% | 59.9% | ▲ +12.3% | 1.67 |
| 2 |  Port Vale– Chesterfield | 2026-10-17 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 59.7% | 48.8% | ▲ +10.9% | 2.05 |
| 3 |  Crewe– Rochdale | 2026-10-17 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 59.5% | 49.5% | ▲ +10.0% | 2.02 |
| 4 |  Accrington– Gillingham | 2026-10-17 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 58.7% | 52.6% | ▲ +6.0% | 1.90 |
| 5 |  Swindon– Walsall | 2026-10-17 | 14:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 69.7% | 64.9% | ▲ +4.8% | 1.54 |
| 6 |  Oldham– Cheltenham | 2026-10-17 | 14:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 70.2% | 66.7% | ▲ +3.6% | 1.50 |
| 7 |  Tranmere– Barnet | 2026-10-17 | 14:00 | Away win | 52.5% | 50.3% | ▲ +2.3% | 1.99 |
| 8 |  Shrewsbury– Bristol Rovers | 2026-10-17 | 11:30 | Home win | 32.4% | 33.0% | -0.6% | 3.03 |
Add League Two fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctWe simulate the remaining League Two schedule 10,000 times a day. Barnet win the 2026-2027 title in 53% of them, projecting ~84 points; York City are next at 21%. At the other end, Crawley finish in the bottom three in 60% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 18 | 84 | 74–94 | 53% | 91% | — |
| 2 | York City | 15 | 79 | 68–89 | 21% | 73% | <1% |
| 3 | Salford | 19 | 74 | 65–84 | 8% | 51% | <1% |
| 4 | Chesterfield | 15 | 73 | 63–83 | 7% | 47% | <1% |
| 5 | Crewe | 18 | 71 | 61–81 | 3% | 33% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | 53 | 43–62 | — | <1% | 30% |
| 23 | Shrewsbury | 11 | 49 | 39–58 | — | <1% | 52% |
| 24 | Crawley | 5 | 47 | 37–57 | — | <1% | 60% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 438 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/england/league-two/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="League Two live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/england/league-two">League Two stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every League Two match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Draws▲ +20.5%
at market prices · 114 matcheschart →
Draws in League Two, 2026-2027: across 114 matches the market's prices paid out +20.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▲ +8.8%
at market prices · 114 matcheschart →
Home wins in League Two, 2026-2027: across 114 matches the market's prices paid out +8.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▲ +7.7%
at market prices · 114 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in League Two, 2026-2027: across 114 matches the market's prices paid out +7.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −1.6%
at market prices · 114 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in League Two, 2026-2027: across 114 matches the market's prices paid out −1.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −19.1%
at market prices · 114 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in League Two, 2026-2027: across 114 matches the market's prices paid out −19.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −22.7%
at market prices · 114 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in League Two, 2026-2027: across 114 matches the market's prices paid out −22.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −49.6%
at market prices · 114 matcheschart →
Away wins in League Two, 2026-2027: across 114 matches the market's prices paid out −49.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford | 19 | 17.5 | +1.5 | |
| 2 | Barnet | 18 | 13.2 | +4.8 | |
| 3 | Crewe | 18 | 13.7 | +4.3 | |
| 4 | Gillingham | 16 | 11.6 | +4.4 | |
| 5 | York City | 15 | 15.1 | -0.1 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | 11.4 | -3.4 | |
| 23 | Northampton | 7 | 11.5 | -4.5 | |
| 24 | Crawley | 5 | 7.8 | -2.8 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisSalford19 ptsBarnet18 ptsCrewe18 ptsGillingham16 ptsYork City15 ptsWalsall15 ptsChesterfield15 ptsCheltenham15 ptsBristol Rovers15 ptsRochdale14 pts
Grimsby13 pts
Newport13 ptsTranmere12 ptsExeter12 ptsAccrington11 pts
Fleetwood11 ptsSwindon11 ptsShrewsbury11 pts
Colchester10 ptsRotherham10 ptsOldham8 ptsPort Vale8 ptsNorthampton7 ptsCrawley5 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+