League Two relegation battle 2026/27: who will go down?
England · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 8 Oct 2026
Lowest survival chances in League Two: Crawley (49%), Shrewsbury (69%), Newport (73%). 49 points kept a club up in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
How many points kept clubs up in past seasons? ↓enough to stay up in half the simulated seasons
enough to stay up in nine seasons out of ten
Survival chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Survive | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley | 7 | 4 | 4737–56 | 49% | 45 from 39 (1.15/game) |
| Shrewsbury | 9 | 11 | 5041–60 | 69% | 38 from 37 (1.03/game) |
| Newport | 9 | 10 | 5141–61 | 73% | 39 from 37 (1.05/game) |
| Northampton | 7 | 6 | 5141–60 | 73% | 43 from 39 (1.10/game) |
| Tranmere | 9 | 11 | 5344–63 | 83% | 38 from 37 (1.03/game) |
| Accrington | 9 | 10 | 5545–65 | 88% | 39 from 37 (1.05/game) |
| Gillingham | 9 | 13 | 5848–67 | 94% | 36 from 37 (0.97/game) |
| Exeter | 9 | 9 | 5748–67 | 94% | 40 from 37 (1.08/game) |
| Rochdale | 9 | 13 | 5849–68 | 94% | 36 from 37 (0.97/game) |
| Port Vale | 7 | 5 | 6150–71 | 96% | 44 from 39 (1.13/game) |
| Rotherham | 9 | 10 | 6151–71 | 97% | 39 from 37 (1.05/game) |
| Fleetwood | 9 | 10 | 6151–71 | 97% | 39 from 37 (1.05/game) |
| Cheltenham | 9 | 15 | 6252–72 | 97% | 34 from 37 (0.92/game) |
| Colchester | 8 | 10 | 6454–74 | 99% | 39 from 38 (1.03/game) |
| Swindon | 9 | 11 | 6555–76 | 99% | 38 from 37 (1.03/game) |
| Oldham | 8 | 7 | 6554–75 | 99% | 42 from 38 (1.11/game) |
Above 99%: York City, Barnet, Chesterfield, Salford, Walsall, Crewe, Grimsby, Bristol Rovers.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
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League Two survival points: the recent history
How many points have kept clubs up? Across these 6 completed seasons, the club finishing 22nd ended on 40–49 points. Those are the last safe clubs' actual totals, not a fixed target for this season.
| Season | 22nd — stayed up | Pts / GD | 23rd — relegated | Pts / GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Crawley Town | 40 / -24 | Harrogate Town | 39 / -29 |
| 2024/25 | Newport County | 49 / -24 | Carlisle United | 42 / -27 |
| 2023/24 | Colchester United | 45 / -21 | Sutton United | 42 / -25 |
| 2022/23 | Crawley Town | 46 / -23 | Hartlepool United | 43 / -26 |
| 2021/22 | Barrow | 44 / -13 | Oldham Athletic | 38 / -29 |
| 2020/21 | Scunthorpe United | 48 / -23 | Southend United | 45 / -29 |
Pts = final official points after deductions. GD = goal difference. A club could finish below 22nd on the same points after a tiebreak. Neither column is a mathematically guaranteed survival total; a current-season forecast is a separate estimate.
Sources and season notes
- 2025/26. Crawley finished one point above Harrogate. These are the final regular-season standings after 46 matches. 11v11 final table, 2 May 2026 · Grimsby Town FC: 2025/26 club statistics
- 2024/25. Newport's 49 points were the actual 22nd-place total; 49 was not a mathematical minimum for survival. 11v11 final table, 3 May 2025 · FBref 2024/25 League Two table
- 2023/24. Morecambe's three-point deduction is included in the final table; they finished 15th. Sutton and Forest Green both finished on 42 points, with Sutton 23rd on goal difference. Coludata 2023/24 final table · FBref 2023/24 League Two table · EFL disciplinary decision: Morecambe, April 2024
- 2022/23. Crawley finished three points above Hartlepool after 46 matches. 11v11 final table, 8 May 2023 · FBref 2022/23 League Two table
- 2021/22. The EFL's annual review records Barrow in 22nd and Oldham in 23rd, six points apart. EFL Annual Review 2021/22, final League Two table · BoroGuide 2021/22 final table
- 2020/21. This was a completed 46-match season. The shortened 2019/20 season is excluded from this comparison. FBref 2020/21 League Two table · Sporting Life 2020/21 final table
Checked 2026-10-04. Historical final standings, not a reconstruction from match results.
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 450 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes outside the relegation places (top 22). The points line is what the club finishing 23rd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).