League Two promotion race 2026/27: who will go up?
England · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 8 Oct 2026
Most likely to finish in the automatic promotion places: York City (77%), Barnet (74%), Chesterfield (39%). 80 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to finish in the automatic promotion places in half the simulated seasons
enough to finish in the automatic promotion places in nine seasons out of ten
Promoted chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Promoted | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York City | 8 | 14 | 8272–92 | 77% | 66 from 38 (1.74/game) |
| Barnet | 7 | 15 | 8271–92 | 74% | 65 from 39 (1.67/game) |
| Chesterfield | 9 | 14 | 7464–84 | 39% | 66 from 37 (1.78/game) |
| Salford | 9 | 16 | 7262–82 | 26% | 64 from 37 (1.73/game) |
| Walsall | 8 | 14 | 7060–80 | 18% | 66 from 38 (1.74/game) |
| Crewe | 9 | 15 | 6858–78 | 14% | 65 from 37 (1.76/game) |
| Grimsby | 9 | 13 | 6858–78 | 13% | 67 from 37 (1.81/game) |
| Bristol Rovers | 9 | 15 | 6655–76 | 8% | 65 from 37 (1.76/game) |
| Swindon | 9 | 11 | 6555–76 | 7% | 69 from 37 (1.86/game) |
| Oldham | 8 | 7 | 6554–75 | 6% | 73 from 38 (1.92/game) |
| Colchester | 8 | 10 | 6454–74 | 5% | 70 from 38 (1.84/game) |
| Cheltenham | 9 | 15 | 6252–72 | 3% | 65 from 37 (1.76/game) |
| Fleetwood | 9 | 10 | 6151–71 | 3% | 70 from 37 (1.89/game) |
| Rotherham | 9 | 10 | 6151–71 | 2% | 70 from 37 (1.89/game) |
| Port Vale | 7 | 5 | 6150–71 | 2% | 75 from 39 (1.92/game) |
| Rochdale | 9 | 13 | 5849–68 | 1% | 67 from 37 (1.81/game) |
Below 1%: Gillingham, Exeter, Accrington, Tranmere, Newport, Northampton, Shrewsbury, Crawley.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 450 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes in the top 3. The points line is what the club finishing 4th ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).