League Two title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
England · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 8 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: York City (39%), Barnet (36%), Chesterfield (9%). 88 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York City | 8 | 14 | 8272–92 | 39% | 74 from 38 (1.95/game) |
| Barnet | 7 | 15 | 8271–92 | 36% | 73 from 39 (1.87/game) |
| Chesterfield | 9 | 14 | 7464–84 | 9% | 74 from 37 (2.00/game) |
| Salford | 9 | 16 | 7262–82 | 5% | 72 from 37 (1.95/game) |
| Walsall | 8 | 14 | 7060–80 | 3% | 74 from 38 (1.95/game) |
| Grimsby | 9 | 13 | 6858–78 | 2% | 75 from 37 (2.03/game) |
| Crewe | 9 | 15 | 6858–78 | 2% | 73 from 37 (1.97/game) |
| Swindon | 9 | 11 | 6555–76 | 1% | 77 from 37 (2.08/game) |
Below 1%: Bristol Rovers, Oldham, Colchester, Cheltenham, Fleetwood, Rotherham, Port Vale, Rochdale, Gillingham, Exeter, Accrington, Tranmere, Newport, Northampton, Shrewsbury, Crawley.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
Loading the scenario…
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 450 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).