Newport vs Fleetwood
League Two, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
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LLLDWThe score model made a Fleetwood win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Newport 1.20 – 1.42 Fleetwood.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport win | 32.0% | 28.8% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 27.0% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Fleetwood win | 42.1% | 44.2% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | 51.7% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.9% | 30.9% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 56.0% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.2% | 35.5% | -7.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Newport 57.6 / Fleetwood 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Newport vs Fleetwood in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.