Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers
League Two, England · 2026-09-12 · 13:30 CET
WLLLL
LWLLLThe score model made a Grimsby win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Grimsby 1.61 – 1.25 Bristol Rovers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby win | 45.8% | 39.1% | +6.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 26.7% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Bristol Rovers win | 29.8% | 34.2% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | 54.4% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.2% | 33.5% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | 58.5% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.2% | 37.2% | +1.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Grimsby 58.5 / Bristol Rovers 33.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.