Barnet vs Accrington
League Two, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
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DDWDWThe score model made a Barnet win the most likely outcome at 60%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Barnet 2.03 – 1.04 Accrington.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet win | 60.4% | 63.0% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.9% | 21.5% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Accrington win | 18.8% | 15.5% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | 60.7% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.7% | 40.0% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 56.1% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.2% | 41.8% | +3.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Barnet 33.1 / Accrington 54.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Barnet vs Accrington in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.