Swindon vs Colchester
League Two, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
LLDLL
LDDDLThe score model made a Swindon win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Swindon 1.44 – 1.20 Colchester.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 42.6% | 37.1% | +5.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 26.9% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Colchester win | 31.5% | 36.0% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 54.5% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 34.1% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | 58.6% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.3% | 36.9% | -1.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Swindon 57.2 / Colchester 57.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.