Salford vs Port Vale
League Two, England · 2026-09-05 · 13:30 CET
WLLLL
WLLDDThe score model makes a Salford win the most likely outcome at 37%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Port Vale win — 34.5% vs 22.9% implied (+11.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Salford 1.16 – 1.10 Port Vale.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salford win | 37.3% | 49.8% | -12.5% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 27.3% | +0.9% |
| Port Vale win | 34.5% | 22.9% | +11.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.5% | 44.9% | -5.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.4% | 25.2% | -5.8% |
| Both teams to score | 45.7% | 48.4% | -2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 29.6% | -3.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Salford 58.7 / Port Vale 17.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.