Salford vs Port Vale
League Two, England · 2026-09-05 · 13:30 CET
DWWWW
LLWLWThe score model made a Salford win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Salford 1.25 – 1.09 Port Vale.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford win | 40.0% | 51.8% | -11.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.9% | 25.0% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Port Vale win | 32.1% | 23.2% | +8.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.4% | 51.5% | -10.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.8% | 30.2% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.2% | 53.8% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.8% | 35.0% | -8.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Salford 59 / Port Vale 18.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.